Let’s mention those who will be making the market in 2019:
1. Those with the least amount of experience and education.
2. Those who don’t own a home here yet.
People in these two categories aren’t hampered by the over-analysis that comes with owning a home here currently. Those who already own a home in San Diego have paid less, and have a lower mortgage rate. We are trying to make sense of giving that up, and paying more!
It’s a burden that thwarts most attempts to move by current homeowners.
But those who don’t study it too hard, or don’t already own a home will forge ahead. They have already decided that buying a home make sense in this environment, and have their own personal consequences if they don’t buy. They aren’t going to be talked out of it either.
Figure out how many people are in that group, and you can predict the future.
Here are the categories:
- Up-sizers with strong needs
- Incomers from out-of-county/state/country
- Affluent people
Everyone else will enjoy their comfortable spot on the fence and wait-and-see what these folks will do. Let’s acknowledge though that people in these five groups aren’t tethered with the same restraints as the rest of us – it’s just a matter of how many people are in these groups.
How many? My guess is 80% of those who bought in 2018.