Inventory Watch: April 3

Inventory Watch: April 3

  • Jim Klinge
  • 04/3/23

The first quarter of 2023 is complete, and while there will be a few more new NSDCC listings coming to market this month that were dated in March, this gives us a good view of the current predicament:

Detached-Home Listings Between La Jolla and Carlsbad. First Quarter:

The possible assumptions about the dwindling inventory:

  • The perceived doom makes potential sellers think it’s a bad time to sell.
  • Golden handcuffs – Over 90% of homeowners with a mortgage have a rate lower than today’s.
  • Forever home – Homeowners are satisfied with their current home, now and forever.
  • La Jolla to Carlsbad is the best place on earth to live.

It might be a combination of all four!  Expect the inventory shortage to persist for years to come.

Here’s how the graph looked last year at this time:

The $0 – $1,500,000 Market:

Date
NSDCC Active Listings
Avg. LP/sf
Avg. DOM
# of Pendings
Jan 2, 2023
22
$719/sf
75
15
Jan 9
26
$687/sf
50
14
Jan 16
23
$701/sf
52
20
Jan 23
25
$751/sf
60
21
Jan 30
23
$788/sf
45
25
Feb 6
18
$750/sf
59
24
Feb 13
18
$770/sf
48
26
Feb 20
17
$778/sf
49
26
Feb 27
18
$802/sf
48
23
Mar 6
22
$802/sf
44
14
Mar 13
22
$747/sf
45
16
Mar 20
16
$826/sf
49
21
Mar 27
17
$853/sf
47
20
Apr 3
19
$803/sf
37
20

The $1,500,000 – $2,000,000 Market:

Date
NSDCC Active Listings
Avg. LP/sf
Avg. DOM
# of Pendings
Jan 2, 2023
45
$809/sf
60
18
Jan 9
55
$828/sf
53
19
Jan 16
46
$838/sf
53
30
Jan 23
43
$793/sf
52
31
Jan 30
40
$778/sf
54
34
Feb 6
42
$814/sf
46
30
Feb 13
35
$823/sf
51
39
Feb 20
34
$801/sf
47
40
Feb 27
27
$846/sf
33
45
Mar 6
29
$893/sf
33
41
Mar 13
32
$850/sf
33
39
Mar 20
27
$872/sf
36
41
Mar 27
22
$832/sf
39
36
Apr 3
21
$779/sf
27
36

The $2,000,000 – $3,000,000 Market:

Date
NSDCC Active Listings
Avg. LP/sf
Avg. DOM
# of Pendings
Jan 2, 2023
52
$869/sf
69
30
Jan 9
57
$940/sf
66
31
Jan 16
50
$948/sf
61
36
Jan 23
51
$949/sf
58
35
Jan 30
54
$964/sf
55
34
Feb 6
60
$930/sf
51
42
Feb 13
51
$1,038/sf
52
47
Feb 20
58
$1,022/sf
47
46
Feb 27
56
$1,064/sf
52
49
Mar 6
57
$995/sf
50
50
Mar 13
55
$1,015/sf
53
47
Mar 20
50
$1,011/sf
58
50
Mar 27
54
$1,039/sf
49
47
Apr 3
54
$1,035/sf
52
38

The $3,000,000 – $4,000,000 Market:

Date
NSDCC Active Listings
Avg. LP/sf
Avg. DOM
# of Pendings
Jan 2, 2023
29
$1,236/sf
85
6
Jan 9
29
$1,180/sf
80
5
Jan 16
31
$1,196/sf
73
8
Jan 23
33
$1,201/sf
71
7
Jan 30
37
$1,218/sf
70
6
Feb 6
34
$1,236/sf
75
12
Feb 13
43
$1,333/sf
68
11
Feb 20
39
$1,392/sf
71
18
Feb 27
37
$1,323/sf
68
22
Mar 6
49
$1,222/sf
56
20
Mar 13
49
$1,312/sf
49
22
Mar 20
46
$1,321/sf
52
25
Mar 27
50
$1,329/sf
52
25
Apr 3
49
$1,342/sf
51
23

The $4,000,000+ Market:

Date
NSDCC Active Listings
Avg. LP/sf
Avg. DOM
# of Pendings
Jan 2, 2023
121
$1,744/sf
126
21
Jan 9
119
$1,716/sf
123
20
Jan 16
120
$1,761/sf
121
26
Jan 23
122
$1,707/sf
119
27
Jan 30
120
$1,680/sf
121
30
Feb 6
125
$1,714/sf
118
28
Feb 13
121
$1,750/sf
116
32
Feb 20
129
$1,725/sf
112
33
Feb 27
124
$1,743/sf
115
31
Mar 6
122
$1,753/sf
109
28
Mar 13
120
$1,782/sf
109
32
Mar 20
129
$1,783/sf
106
28
Mar 27
127
$1,781/sf
106
27
Apr 3
131
$1,774/sf
105
27

NSDCC Weekly New Listings and New Pendings

Week
New Listings
New Pendings
Total Actives
Total Pendings
Jan 2, 2023
11
6
263
89
Jan 9
36
15
277
88
Jan 16
36
34
266
114
Jan 23
36
22
269
116
Jan 30
32
25
272
123
Feb 6
46
33
275
131
Feb 13
30
35
265
150
Feb 20
43
34
274
158
Feb 27
27
30
260
165
Mar 6
45
28
276
150
Mar 13
38
38
274
154
Mar 20
39
37
265
164
Mar 27
36
25
267
153
Apr 3
37
28
271
143

NSDCC Weekly LP Quartiles

Week
1st Quartile
2nd Quartile (Median LP)
3rd Quartile
Jan 2, 2023
$2,095,000
$3,695,000
$5,995,000
Jan 9
$1,990,000
$3,495,000
$5,775,000
Jan 16
$2,000,000
$3,574,000
$5,995,000
Jan 23
$2,099,000
$3,595,000
$5,999,000
Jan 30
$2,195,000
$3,525,000
$5,942,000
Feb 6
$2,195,000
$3,598,000
$6,845,000
Feb 13
$2,300,000
$3,795,000
$6,495,000
Feb 20
$2,397,500
$3,950,000
$6,197,500
Feb 27
$2,480,800
$3,970,000
$6,845,000
Mar 6
$2,395,000
$3,749,500
$5,995,000
Mar 13
$2,397,000
$3,772,500
$5,997,000
Mar 20
$2,580,000
$3,995,000
$6,800,000
Mar 27
$2,595,000
$3,995,000
$6,845,000
Apr 3
$2,699,000
$3,995,000
$6,750,000
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