I said previously that the supply got ‘pulled forward’ this year, which is lazy talk.
It suggests that there could have been something outside of the sellers’ intentions that caused it to happen. Trump was re-elected, and sworn into office – did that cause sellers to list their home for sale earlier than usual? Maybe, but I doubt it.
There is too much riding on the sale of your home, and local market data is scarce. Unless the potential home sellers are following that part-time blogger guy who was signaling an early surge in the 2025 inventory, they didn’t have a clue it was coming – and still may not have noticed today!
This is my current hypothesis:
Almost every seller hasn’t sold a house in a long time – it’s been years and years and maybe decades since the last time they sold a home. They are going to assume that the Spring Selling Season will be the right time to list their home for sale. You know – the normal time for sellers – April, May, June, and July.
But some didn’t go along with that plan. Who would they be?
Sellers who tried it before, and were unsuccessful.
They are experienced at NOT selling. The frustration of failing still has some sting, and the anxiety about the unknown is real. They are proud of their home, and it bugs them that nobody was willing to pay their price for it!
It will be those 2024/2025 sellers who were unsuccessful who will want to get an early start on the competition in 2026.
The graph above shows how the number of listings in August and September, 2025 are lower year-over-year. Doesn’t it have to be because some sellers already launched sooner in 2025!
I thought I was done with listings this year, and I’ve been pushing everyone to January. But we are going to launch two new listings before Thanksgiving because I think the current market is ripe for new meat, and that in early 2026 the inventory will get crowded early.
It is so likely that pricing will be flat for another year that it would take a big drop in mortgage rates for anything to change. If so, then selling now vs. 2026 won’t matter much on price – and with less competition, it might be better now!
