Towards the end of 2024, there was evidence that a surge of listings was going to happen in early 2025.
We had several listings already signed months before January, 2025 (which was unusual), there had been 17% more listings in 2024 than there were in 2023, and there were more active listings YoY in the first week of December:
NSDCC Active Listings, First Week of December
2023: 340
2024: 373 (+10%)
Today: 413 (+11%)
It sure looks like 2026 will be a repeat of 2025, only with ANOTHER 10% to 15% MORE listings than we had this year.
Why isn’t there a bigger impact on the market?
It’s because sellers and agents are numb about pricing.
Instead of pricing attractively (at or below comps), we just keep pricing them the same as last year and wait until the ‘right’ buyer comes along.
Look at how 2025 pricing compares with 2024 – it is virtually identical, even though there was more competition:
The only problem is that more homes aren’t selling.
Will the sellers and agents figure it out this time? Probably not, and by the end of summer there will be a bigger glut of unsold homes waiting for 2027 – unless a miracle happens and rates drop substantially to clear the market. Unfortunately, when a unique and artifical event takes place, it is unhealthy and the opposite of real price discovery.
My guess is the battle between the new Fed chief vs bond traders will keep rates about where they are, and we wil get some real price discovery towards the end of 2026 as the heirs to the boomer homes get tired of waiting.
The San Diego metro area is about 1% of the USA population, so we’ll have around 26,000 boomers passing away next year:
If 3/4 of them are homeowners, and 2/3s of their homes go up for sale, it will make up about HALF of the overall San Diego metro sales in 2026. There will be a lot of under-improved homes with anxious sellers, which it should provide more downward pressure on pricing – at least in a logical market!
